Can Trump Cut a Deal With Mexico?

Negotiations between President-elect Trump and Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum heated up over the past week, with both presenting conflicting accounts of a recent diplomatic call.

President-elect Trump launched his pre-inaugural diplomacy by threatening a 25 percent tariff on Mexican exports to the United States unless Mexican leadership implemented comprehensive border security measures. Initially, Mexico responded with combative rhetoric, threatening reciprocal tariffs and shifting blame for the trafficking crisis onto the United States. Negotiations were shaping up to be tense when, with habitual bombast, Trump announced that Sheinbaum had agreed to his undisclosed security demands and would be closing the international border to trafficking on Truth Social:

Just had a wonderful conversation with the new President of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo. She has agreed to stop Migration through Mexico, and into the United States, effectively closing our Southern Border. We also talked about what can be done to stop the massive drug inflow into the United States, and also, U.S. consumption of these drugs. It was a very productive conversation!

Trump followed the update with an equally triumphant message, declaring, “Mexico will stop people from going to our Southern Border, effective immediately. THIS WILL GO A LONG WAY TOWARD STOPPING THE ILLEGAL INVASION OF THE USA. Thank you!!!”

Announcing a vague security arrangement initially seemed to underscore the strength of American trade leverage over Mexico, but the hasty rollout and unspecified details likely betrayed a less settled understanding between the two leaders. Sheinbaum, who is maintaining a tough public posture, released a social media statement of her own the following day. The post dismissed Trump’s claims that Mexico would close the border, instead implying that Mexico already maintains adequate security and that no major change to the status quo has been implemented:

In our conversation with President Trump, I outlined the comprehensive strategy that Mexico has implemented to address the migration phenomenon, respecting human rights. Thanks to this approach, we provide assistance to migrants and caravans before they reach the border. We reiterated that Mexico’s position is not to close borders but to build bridges between governments and peoples.

Later asked by reporters to divulge details of her conversation with Trump, Sheinbaum emphasized that the phone call had been “excellent” but doubled down on her clarification that Mexico would not, in fact, shut down human and drug trafficking routes: 

Each person has their own way of communicating. But I can assure you, I guarantee you, that we never—additionally, we would be incapable of doing so—proposed that we would close the border in the north [of Mexico], or in the south of the United States. It has never been our idea and, of course, we are not in agreement with that.

At this stage, it’s difficult to ascertain what the future or U.S.–Mexico relations will be in the Trump-Sheinbaum era, though the last few weeks have given some indication of the nature of the developing relationship. Trump, as ever, is going to deal harshly with Mexico and publicize his wins with bombast. Trump’s demands for security are clear, as emphasized across a decade of campaigning and four years as president. His celebratory statements bolster his “promises made, promises kept” mantra while pressuring Mexican leadership to make public concessions. 

Sheinbaum’s intentions are proving harder to decipher. Publicly, Sheinbaum has committed to tough rhetoric and the Morena Party’s concept of Mexican humanism. President-elect Trump’s reaction to their initial engagement suggests her private communications may be more pragmatic, or at least flattering. Mexico’s breakup of two small migrant caravans, which were referred to in Trump’s Truth posts, is a clue that the latter is likely. 

Clarity as to the direction of bi-lateral relations will have to wait until policy implementation begins, set for the first day of the second Trump administration. Scant detail over any agreements or arrangements between the two leaders has been provided, limiting the value of pre-inaugural speculation. Trump’s victorious positing spurred celebration among online conservatives, each assured that the president-elect had cajoled his southern counterpart before even taking office. The right’s celebrations, which prematurely rewarded Mar-a-Lago without regard for specifics, serves to illustrate the benefits the respective presidents receive from domestic political signaling. Actionable solutions, justly demanded by an impatient American public, will come only after the politicking is done.