Phillies a loss away from a winter of uncertainty and difficult decisions originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia
The Phillies aren’t just a loss away from going home for the winter.
They’re a loss away from having to make a series of difficult decisions to reformat their roster to better compete in 2025.
There is still a chance, albeit a small one, that they pull off a two-game winning streak like they did 32 times in the regular season to come back against the Mets in the NLDS, but if they can’t, it’s almost impossible to imagine John Middleton and Dave Dombrowski just running back a similar version of the team next season as it did in 2024. There’s too much invested, a luxury tax payroll over $260 million. There’s too much at stake in the primes of Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Kyle Schwarber, to name a few.
The areas requiring improvement are not a mystery. First and foremost, the Phillies need more selectivity in their lineup. They need more hitters capable of controlling the strike zone and controlling an at-bat. They have just two who work counts in Harper and Schwarber. The rest of the offense is built around free-swingers like Turner, Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm, J.T. Realmuto, Edmundo Sosa and Johan Rojas. Bryson Stott also took a step back this season and Brandon Marsh continued to strike out at an alarming clip.
It’s obviously not a bad lineup or group, it’s a 95-win team, but it hasn’t been able to adjust in October when things have turned. A reason it hasn’t is because aggressiveness is in the DNA of most of these hitters.
“It’s tough to get down early, but we have to fight,” manager Rob Thomson said. “I thought our at-bats early in the game were OK. We hit three balls early, just didn’t have anything to show for it. Then as the game rolled along, I think at some point guys tried to do a little too much. We just need to stay with our approach and pass the baton, that’s what we always talk about.”
Improving a lineup’s selectivity doesn’t require going out and signing Juan Soto for $400 million. The Mets, for example, acquired Jesse Winker cheaply at the trade deadline. He’s a platoon player best suited for the six-hole, but he can work a count better than all but two Phillies.
The Phils were close to winning it all in 2022 and felt they were even closer in 2023 until their red-hot playoff run ended abruptly after Game 2 of the NLCS. This 2024 team has been the best and most talented of the three, but for a second straight year, the front office didn’t add an impact bat at the trade deadline.
A large reason for that is the Phillies were locked into their starters at first base, second base, shortstop, third base, catcher, right field and DH. There weren’t many spots to upgrade. But Austin Hays has made little impact — partially because of injury and a kidney infection — and he was this summer’s only offensive addition.
Hays was acquired specifically for his ability to hit lefties but had so poor a game Tuesday night that he might be replaced by Weston Wilson in left field against Jose Quintana in Game 4. Hays took three at-bats against Sean Manaea, tapping out softly to third base and striking out twice on pitches outside the zone.
“We’ve got to talk about it tonight,” Thomson said. “He looked a little rusty and a little off balance, timing was off a little bit. We’ll talk about the lineup later.”
Barring an October turnaround that must begin Wednesday, Dombrowski and the Phillies’ front office will need to figure out center field and left field this winter. Marsh is a fan favorite and productive against righties but he barely plays against lefties, starting 16 times all season. The Phils need a better offensive arrangement vs. lefties than Hays in left with Rojas in center. And they probably also need a better offensive option in center against righties than Rojas.
The Phillies’ 6 through 9 hitters are 4-for-41 in the NLDS with Kody Clemens going 2-for-4 and the others 2-for-37.
Center field and another outfield spot are the two most obvious spots to upgrade but the Phillies would be wise to consider other options and likely will. Is Stott still regarded here as an everyday player? He wasn’t treated as such most of the year. Is Bohm the long-term answer at third? He was benched in Game 2 of the NLDS.
Attached as these players are to each other and the fanbase is to them, these are the kinds of hard calls a front office must make when it’s time to shake up a formula that has worked but not well enough.
It’s still within this group’s control. They have the ability to extend their season and delay a series of difficult decisions. They just can’t lose again this week.
“As a group, this is the closest to death as we’re ever gonna get. So in a way, we should feel the most alive,” Castellanos said. “We’re only promised tomorrow and this is what we’ve worked since spring training for, to have this opportunity. It’s just one more time to show out and leave everything on the field and however the dice is gonna land, it’s gonna land.
“Instead of just flushing it and forgetting it, I think right now it’s really important to embrace the situation we’re in. If we lose, we’re going home, baseball’s over for us. It’s a great opportunity because if we’re able to scrape out another win here, I know that they do not want to go back to Philly for a Game 5.”
