Rarely do we see an NFL team as thoroughly awful on both sides of the ball as the Panthers. It is normally great for fantasy football — you know to sit the players from the bad teams and start those going against them.
Carolina threw a bit of a wrench into that easy plan recently when it benched Bryce Young and inserted Andy Dalton. All of a sudden, Diontae Johnson was useful. Chuba Hubbard could gain yards. Dalton even gave you one good quarterback week.
But you couldn’t put too much faith in them, because as they showed last week, a true offensive dud was still a part of their repertoire. Everybody pretty much stunk on the offensive side — expect for a surprise day from tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders.
But don’t fear. For as soon as you thought forecasting the Panthers impotence had become tricky, allow their misery to be your salvation.
Dalton injured his thumb in a car crash, which forces Young back into the starting spot. And that drags down every Panther previously considered for a starting role.
But wait, it gets worse. Johnson, easily the team’s top receiver, is out with a ribs problem. Young has yet to show he can muster a legitimate passing offense at the NFL level with whatever the best he has is, and now he doesn’t have that.
Young started the first two games of the season. In those two games, exactly one Panther scored in double digits in PPR — Hubbard with 11.6 in Week 2 against the Chargers.
This week, they face the Broncos, a team that has given up 100 yards rushing to an opponent just once since Week 2. They are the second-toughest against quarterbacks and wide receivers.
So the Broncos don’t have to defend against the Panthers best WR. The Carolina QB poses no threat, so they can focus all of their attention on stopping the immortal Chuba Hubbard. Who is going to beat them otherwise?
Oh yeah, the tight end. Right. After all, Denver ranks in the bottom half against fantasy tight ends. Only, Sanders got a total of three targets from Young the first two weeks. Oh, and another thing, Tommy Tremble could return, so fewer snaps and routes for Sanders.
Just steer clear of everything Carolina. That is the safest bet.
But on the other hand … flock to the Broncos. Fire up some Bo Nix — who has just one true dud since Week 3, and the Panthers defense is in the bottom four against fantasy QBs. The only two games in which they have held opposing QBs below the league average is in Weeks 2 and 6, when the Chargers and Falcons ran them off the field.
That’s right, play all the Javonte Williams you can get your hands on, because the Panthers are the worst against opposing running backs. Dead last. More than 2.5 points per week worst than the next worst (Bills). Opposing backfield score 10.1 more in PPR per week against the Panthers than the league average.
The one thing they are sort of, halfway OK with is defending against wide receivers. But don’t let that scare you off using Courtland Sutton or Troy Franklin in deep leagues or as cheap DFS options. The Panthers aren’t actually very good defending the pass, teams just often pull ahead and don’t need to pass. To wit, the 7.6 yards per attempt allowed by the Carolina defense is the highest in the league.
Speaking of defense, the Denver defense/special teams is almost certain to get a turnover and multiple sacks while giving up few points. And Young is long overdue for a pick-six.
So if you have any Panthers, be afraid to use them, be very afraid. But if you have a Bronco, there is nothing to fear.
Big weeks
Caleb Williams QB, Bears, at Commanders (FanDuel $7,400/DraftKings $6,000)
He was balling in his previous two games, and he has had a bye week to get further acclimated. We not sold on the Washington pass defense — whose effectiveness is warped by strong efforts against bad Panthers and Browns QBs
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR, Seahawks, vs. Bills (FD $6,400/DK $6,100)
With DK Metcalf (knee) expected to be out, and facing an offense that can pile up points, JSN could be in line for some additional targets.
Sam LaPorta TE, Lions, vs. Titans (FD $6,000/DK $4,800)
With Jameson Williams suspended the next two games, that puts LaPorta back on our radar. We are comfortable using him in seasonal, expecting extra looks. Tim Patrick catches our eye for DFS.
Mark Andrews TE, Ravens, at Browns (FD $5,600/DK $4,000)
Similarly, with Zay Flowers (ankle) likely out, it opens the door for Andrews to continue to baby-step his way back into fantasy graces. He has two straight good fantasy games to boot.
Small weaks
Baker Mayfield QB, Buccaneers, vs. Falcons (FD $8,100/DK $6,700)
When a team loses its top two WRs, you can expect some QB regression. No combo of Jalen McMillian, Sterling Shepard or Trey Palmer is going to help Baker cook.
Nick Chubb RB, Browns, vs. Ravens (FD $6,900/DK $6,100)
We’re rooting for his full recovery to pre-injury form, but we’re not expecting it overnight. Just 2.0 yards per carry last week. Expect efficiency to improve, but slowly. Baltimore has allowed the fewest rushing yards.
Chris Olave WR, Saints, at Chargers (FD $6,700/DK $6,400)
Assuming his makes it back Sunday from a Week 6 concussion, not interested in any WR who has Spencer Rattler at QB — even without Rashid Shaheed.
Jaylen Waddle WR, Dolphins, vs. Cardinals (FD $5,900/DK $5,400)
Assuming everyone plays, we’re willing to risk potential rust in Tua Tagovailoa’s first week back by using Tyreek Hill (foot), but we prefer to wait a week to use Waddle (quad), if possible. If no Tyreek, then we like Waddle.
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Insanity’s Daily Duel
Drew Loftis and Jarad Wilk submit dueling rosters into a DFS contest:
Site: DraftKings
Slate: Sun. main (11 games)
Type: $12 tourney
Top prize: $15K
Pot: $175K
Drew’s Crew
QB: Jordan Love, GB (at Jac) $7,100
RB: J.K. Dobbins, LAC (vs. NO) $6,900
RB: Javonte Williams, Den (v. Car) $6,000
WR: Rashod Bateman, Bal (at Cle) $4,300
WR: A.J. Brown, Phi (at Cin) $8,200
WR: Romeo Doubs, GB (at Jac) $5,700
TE: Cade Otton, TB (vs. Atl) $3,500
Flex: Tucker Kraft, GB (at Jac) $4,600
DST: Broncos, Den (vs. Car) $3,700
Wilk’s Warriors
QB: Caleb Williams, Chi (at Was) $6,000
RB: Breece Hall, NYJ (at NE) $7,300
RB: D’Andre Swift, Chi (at Was) $6,200
WR: Rashod Bateman, Bal (at Cle) $4,300
WR: Tee Higgins, Cin (vs. Phi) $6,500
WR: DJ Moore, Chi (at Was) $6,600
TE: Kyle Pitts, Atl (at TB) $4,400
Flex: Romeo Doubs, GB (at Jac) $5,700
DST: Bears, Chi (at Was) $2,700
Late roster changes, check @NYPost_Loftis on X and @nypfantasymadman on Threads
Season risked: $106
Season’s winnings: Drew $180, Jarad $113.50