Foreign Affairs
State of the Union: The Biden administration had earlier deferred allowing these strikes due to Russian indication that they would be highly escalatory.
The Biden administration has authorized Ukraine to use the long-range ATACMS missile system against targets within Russia’s pre-2014 borders, according to a Sunday report. This move represents a significant escalation a mere two months before it is set to leave office.
The decision, which has allegedly divided President Joe Biden’s advisors, is supposed to assist the ongoing Ukrainian incursion in Russia’s Kursk region in response to the alleged deployment of North Korean troops by Russia.
The ATACMS targeting system relies on an American-operated GPS system, which uses data collected and transmitted by U.S. satellites. As a result, the operation of the system requires the active use of American assets. Because of this, the U.S. and U.K. deferred making a decision in September when the possibility of allowing such strikes was being openly discussed by Biden and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
In September, Russia indicated that strikes against Russia with the ATACMS would be a major escalation, with the Vyacheslav Volodin, the chairman of the State Duma, stating that Russia would have to use “more powerful and destructive weapons” if the Biden administration allowed ATACMS strikes against Russia.
At the time, President Vladimir Putin publicly commented that the use of the ATACMS system against Russia would be escalatory. “If this decision is made, it will mean nothing less than the direct participation of NATO countries, the United States, the European countries, in the war in Ukraine,” Putin told Russian state television. “This changes the very nature of the conflict.”
Putin also cited the targeting system of the ATACMS as to why such a decision would be escalatory, commenting:
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The key point is that only servicemen of NATO countries can input flight missions into these missile systems. Ukrainian servicemen cannot do this. Therefore this is not about permitting or not permitting the Ukrainian regime to strike Russia with these weapons. This is about whether or not NATO countries take the decision to directly participate in the military conflict.
While the U.S. has provided Ukraine with and permitted Ukrainian use of the ATACMS system in the current conflict, its use has been limited to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders.
Despite the stated redlines, Russia may eschew escalatory retaliation; President-elect Donald Trump has indicated a desire to end the conflict.
