The Jihad missile system is seen during the annual military parade in Tehran, Iran, Sept. 21, 2024. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
The leader of the Iranian regime, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has ordered his military forces to prepare several possible options for how to respond if Israel attacks Iran – while also signaling that Iran could choose to view the exchange as ended if Israel’s strike doesn’t cross certain red lines.
According to four unnamed Iranian officials who recently spoke to The New York Times, the severity of Iran’s response will depend on Israel’s targets in a strike.
For example, if Israel limits its strikes to Iran’s military bases and depots for missiles and drones, Iran could decide to end the exchange there.
“In the event of an Israeli attack, the shape of our response will be proportionate and calculated,” Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said at the BRICS summit in Russia on Wednesday.
However, if Israel strikes oil or nuclear facilities or kills senior regime officials, or if the attacks cause significant damage and high casualties, the officials said Iran will retaliate with even greater force.
The latest exchange began in October when Iran launched a large-scale ballistic missile assault on Israel in response to the assassinations of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Hezbollah Sec.-Gen. Hassan Nasrallah and IRGC Gen. Abbas Nilforoushan.
Iranian officials warned that Iran could launch another missile strike, potentially involving up to 1,000 ballistic missiles.
Other actions Iran may take include inciting large, simultaneous attacks by its proxy terrorist groups across the region, or disrupting the oil supplies through the strait of Hormuz along Iran’s southern coast, potentially creating a global oil crisis.
Israel has vowed to respond severely to the assault but so far, hasn’t followed through.
British media reported that Israel decided to postpone its response after documents containing intelligence about Israeli preparations were leaked inside the Pentagon. This was later denied by Israeli officials.
Iran has been bracing for Israeli strikes for weeks, keeping its armed forces on high alert and increasing aerial defenses, the four Iranian officials said.
On Thursday, the government banned civilian drones from the airspace, in another step to prepare for the expected attack.
During a visit to Hatzerim Air Force base on Wednesday, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant reiterated Israel’s determination to strike the regime.
“After we strike Iran, everyone will understand what your training process and preparation entailed,” Gallant told a group of Air Force pilots.