Lebanese expats cast their ballots in France and dozens of other countries on Sunday in early voting for the May 15 parliamentary elections. Their numbers have swelled due to the economic crisis and calls for change have multiplied. But can the confessional system, entrenched political interests and opposition divides bring the change most Lebanese seek?
Maroun Hadchity proudly raised his thumb to display the indelible ink indicating the 28-year-old postgraduate student had cast his ballot in Paris in early voting Sunday for the May 15 Lebanese parliamentary elections.
It was also a thumbs-up for the indomitable hope the Lebanese place, time and again, in the democratic process, even as the complicated electoral system in their crisis-hit country routinely fails to deliver the fundamental change they have been demanding for years.
Maroun Hadchity (right) after voting in the Lebanese parliamentary elections in Paris on May 8, 2022. © Leela Jacinto, FRANCE 24
Lebanon’s 2022 parliamentary elections are the first vote since the onset of an economic crisis and the devastating 2020 Beirut port explosions, which many believe are outcomes of the rampant corruption and chronic mismanagement of the country’s political elites.
Hadchity was one of 194,348 registered overseas voters in 48 countries who were able to cast their ballots in early voting Sunday. Last week, a similar vote for Lebanese expatriates was held on the traditional Friday holiday in nine Arab countries and Iran.
A total of 244,442 Lebanese abroad registered to cast their ballots this year, more than double the number of expats who signed up to vote in the 2018 parliamentary vote – when the country conducted its first-ever overseas vote. France has among the highest number of Lebanese diaspora votes, with around 28,000 eligible voters.
Standing outside the fifth arrondissement town hall in Paris, where he voted exactly a week ahead of the May 15 poll, Hadchity distanced himself from cynics who argued that voting was futile in an election unlikely to unseat Lebanon’s entrenched political elites.
“As a citizen, if everyone says nothing will change, then nothing will change,” he declared empathically. “This nothing will change quote is being disseminated by political parties in government, who have a majority, to discourage people from voting so that nothing will change. But any shift in seats can have an impact on the country’s political direction.”
‘Important year’ for Lebanese diasporaLebanon’s 128-seat parliament is currently dominated by the powerful Iran-backed Hezbollah group and its allies, which won a majority in the 2018 elections. The Hezbollah group victory four years ago came despite an extraordinary coalition of independent and secular civil society members, called the Kulluna Watani list, which fielded a record number of female candidates.
The campaign trail excitement around the Kulluna Watani list however failed to translate into parliamentary seats. Lebanon’s entrenched political parties closed ranks, formed alliances – and aided by a carefully crafted new electoral law – secured a parliamentary majority. Kulluna Watani managed to win just one seat in the 2018 elections.
That was before the country sank into economic misery, one of the world’s worst since the mid-1800s, according to the World Bank. Lebanon’s inflation-battered currency has now lost more than 90 percent of its value, around 80 percent of the population has slipped into poverty and thousands have been forced to flee the country.
Lebanon has long been a source of migration, with many estimates claiming – in the absence of official figures – that more Lebanese people live abroad than within the tiny country, home to some 6.5 million people, including Lebanese and refugees, many having fled conflict in neighbouring Syria.
The current economic crisis has seen an estimated 300,000 people leave the country in just two years, making it the country’s third mass exodus in recorded history, according to the American University of Beirut’s Crisis Observatory.
The figure, most experts believe, would have been higher were it not for the pandemic making it more difficult to find jobs abroad. The freezing of bank accounts of ordinary citizens to prevent a run on the banks has also meant that many Lebanese would like to leave the country, but simply can’t afford it.
“This year is a particularly important one for the diaspora,” explained Karim Emile Bitar, director of the Institute of Political Science at the Saint Joseph University of Beirut. “We have a massive wave of emigration and this time, those who are leaving have the impression that they are basically kicked out by the ruling establishment, that they have no other option but to leave because of the dire economic situation and the unprecedented degree of corruption. They feel that they were fleeing a ruling kleptocracy.”
While the diaspora vote is expected to favour the opposition, Bitar warns that, “it would be an illusion to think that once a Lebanese sets foot in Paris or London he is no longer sectarian, he is no longer affected by the deep polarisation in the Lebanese political arena, and that he will instantaneously renounce his traditional allegiances to the feudal lords and sectarian leaders of the country”.
Nancy, 26, and Sandra, 23, said they voted for the opposition in the May 8 early voting for the 2022 Lebanese general elections. © Leela Jacinto, FRANCE 24
‘Revolution’ fails to unite The 2022 vote is also the first major electoral test since a youth-led protest movement from October 2019 vented its rage at Lebanon’s entrenched political class.
The protests were followed by the Beirut port blast, which saw young activists stage an extraordinary relief effort in the absence of state services. The combined crises prompted several activist leaders and groups to enter the political fray in a bid to tackle the nation’s problems.
