Democrats made significant inroads in state legislative races in recent election cycles and hoped to build on those gains on Tuesday. But with many state legislative races still too close to call — and likely to trigger recounts — Republicans appear to have largely staved off big challenges in key states and flipped Democratic seats in others.
Most notably, they partially reversed big Democratic 2022 gains in Michigan and Minnesota that gave that party total control of those state governments and ushered through bold progressive agendas. The GOP flipped at least one legislative chamber in Michigan and appeared to have battled Democrats to a draw in the Minnesota House, with control of the chamber still up in the air.
And Democratic dreams of big gains in Wisconsin — under redrawn maps that gave them their best shot in more than a decade — largely didn’t materialize.
About 80 percent of the country’s 7,386 state legislative seats and 11 governorship were on the ballot Tuesday. Republicans have dominated state capitals for more than a decade, since eviscerating Democrats in the 2010 cycle. And if the early returns are any indication, they’ll do so for the foreseeable future.
“Democrats hyped up the cycle as their best shot since 2010 when they got blown out in the states to gain some real power, and they largely fell short,” said POLITICO’s Liz Crampton, who reported on many of the most closely watched state-level contests in recent months.
We assembled a team of POLITICO reporters and editors — Crampton, Madison Fernandez, Zach Montellaro and Lisa Kashinsky — who have been tracking state races throughout the 2024 cycle to break down the most compelling and surprising results from Tuesday.
Two of the battleground state legislatures were in a holding pattern as of Wednesday afternoon. Arizona appeared to be Democrats’ best shot at earning a complete flip — but it will come down to a handful of races that will likely take days for results to be finalized. In Pennsylvania, Republicans appear to have maintained control in the Senate, while Democrats are hoping to cling to a one-seat majority in the House.
Eight of the 11 governorship on the ballot this year were open seats, raising the prospect of pitched battles. But in the end, not a single state executive post flipped parties. Even the most competitive race in the country — New Hampshire — ended up being a runaway victory for Republican Kelly Ayotte.