Taylor Swift’s ‘Errors’ Tour?

“You can kiss your sales from your Republican audience goodbye, Taylor. I hope you enjoyed them while you had them,” wrote the podcaster Megyn Kelly after the billionaire singer-songwriter Taylor Swift endorsed Kamala Harris for president.

In Kelly’s estimation, Swift did so at the most opportunistic moment and in the most annoying way possible, and ought to pay a price for it. She held off until just after former President Donald Trump’s less-than-stellar performance in his televised September 10 debate with Vice President Kamala Harris, and then posted a picture on Instagram with a cat posed on her shoulder along with a note.

After laying out her reasons for endorsing the Democratic ticket of Harris and Gov. Tim Walz (MN), the singer signed off with the words “Taylor Swift, Childless Cat Lady.” This was a dig at the Republican vice presidential hopeful, Sen. J.D. Vance (OH), who wants the tax code changed to further incentivize childrearing and has characterized some of his opponents using the term Swift embraced. It was also a shot at Trump himself, who amplified rumors of Haitian refugees in the U.S. eating cats and dogs in his debate with Harris.

Her post-debate endorsement kicked off two new debates. One debate was about Swift’s influence on the election. The other, arguably more interesting debate was about the repercussions for Swift’s brand from her political activism.

Swift’s endorsement, like a great many of her words and actions, made headlines. “Swift outswaggers Trump with her Kamala Harris vote,” the front page of the Los Angeles Times blared. In her Instagram note, she explained her own choice and encouraged her supporters to cast their own informed votes.

On the choice to endorse at all, Swift argued that she was pushed into it by Trump and his campaign.

“Recently I was made aware that AI of ‘me’ falsely endorsing Donald Trump’s presidential run was posted to his site,” she wrote. “It really conjured up my fears around AI, and the dangers of spreading misinformation. It brought me to the conclusion that I need to be very transparent about my actual plans for this election as a voter. The simplest way to combat misinformation is with the truth.”

Swift endorsed Harris as a “steady-handed, gifted leader” who embodies “calm and not chaos.” She also praised Gov. Walz, who she said “has been standing up for LGBTQ+ rights, IVF, and a woman’s right to her own body for decades.”

She told supporters that they ought to do their own “research” to cast an informed choice, and gave them a reminder: “Remember that in order to vote, you have to be registered! I also find it’s much easier to vote early.”

The hope of Harris supporters is that many of Swift’s fans, known as “Swifties,” will register and vote early, giving the ticket a boost in what is shaping up to be a close election in the electoral college. Conversely, the hope of Trump supporters is that the endorsement will turn out to be ineffectual or, better yet, backfire.

Early evidence is mixed. “Taylor Swift’s impact on voter engagement is undeniable,” Andrea Hailey, chief executive of Vote.org, told the New York Times. “The important thing to remember is that Taylor’s work serves as a model that everyone with a platform can use to encourage Americans to participate in civic engagement.”

Ryan James Girdusky, author of the National Populist Newsletter and a contributing editor of The American Conservative, poured cold water all over similar assessments.

“Following Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Kamala Harris, there was no noticeably significant voter registration surge in crucial swing states compared to 2020,” he wrote. “Republicans out-registered Democrats in North Carolina, Florida, and Pennsylvania in the week that followed her endorsement.”

The effects on Swift’s reputation are easier to quantify, at least in the short term. Morning Consult ran surveys and found that her negatives among Republicans have climbed to 57 percent today, up from 35 percent in February. It’s still true that 49 percent of voters overall have favorable vibes toward Swift, but the bottom line, according to the consultancy, is that she has become “more polarizing.”

That’s not necessarily bad news in politics. Polarization can be an effective way to win elections. But businesses typically aim for the widest support possible, and Swift’s business had been booming.

Swift’s Eras Tour concert ticket sales are forecast to reach $2.2 billion, and the tour film did over $100 million in advanced ticket sales. On the U.S. leg, Swift brought in “an estimated $13 million in ticket sales per night, attracting an average of 72,000 spectators per concert,” Statista reported.

Swift also amassed her dragon’s horde in a novel way. “In October 2023, Taylor Swift accomplished a feat no other musician had before: she became a billionaire primarily off of earnings from her music and performances,” Forbes reported.

The fact that Swift did this without any “side hustles” may be impressive. Nevertheless, in theory it should render her business more vulnerable to reputational damage that comes along with political bad blood.

The Los Angeles Times published a spate of letters in response to its cover story about her endorsement that were surprisingly hostile. One writer brought up the famous quote by basketball superstar Michael Jordan. “Republicans buy sneakers too,” Jordan quipped. That didn’t stop him from making political donations to progressive politicians during the height of his career, but it did make him less of an outspoken activist.

On top of that, many critics have pointed to a “get woke, go broke” dynamic in popular entertainment that could apply here. Sometimes cultural political shifts by content makers can alienate part of their original audience. Swift had released songs that contained such themes, particularly 2019’s culture-war courting song and music video, “You Need to Calm Down.”

More recently she zagged. In her hit song “Anti-Hero,” Swift even took a shot at her own past self as “the problem.” “Did you hear my covert narcissism I disguise as altruism / Like some kind of congressman?” the narrator asks. “I wake up screaming from dreaming / One day I’ll watch as you’re leaving.”

Yet so far evidence that Swift’s Harris-Walz endorsement is driving away a mass of fans is only anecdotal. Some fans who are also Trump supporters have complained publicly and sold off their concert tickets. These have found ready buyers.

Her music continues to be in heavy rotation on the radio and streaming. Her song, “I Can Do It With a Broken Heart,” was at number 34 on Billboard’s Hot 100 at press time, for instance, down from number 26 the week before.

Swift’s publicist, Tree Paine, was asked for a statement from Swift speaking to her Republican fans but did not deign to reply.