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May 21, 2022
TRON: TRX surges as the rest of the market bleeds, is this trend genuine
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TRON: TRX surges as the rest of the market bleeds, is this trend genuine

Disclaimer: The findings of the following analysis are the sole opinions of the writer and should not be considered investment advice.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index stands at 23, meaning extreme fear. While this metric is not to be used when trading, it does use volume, social media, and surveys to arrive at a value.

At the same time, Bitcoin’s failure to breach the $40k mark as well as its inability to hold on to the $38k mark means that fear was indeed prevalent over the past few days on the charts. However, in the same time period, TRON had a bullish bias. Now the pertinent question is- Can this rally be sustained in the days to come?

TRX- 1 Hour Chart

Source: TRX/USDT on TradingView

In late April, TRX dipped to the $0.64 area (cyan box) and traded without any real trend on lower timeframes until the beginning of May. Even a sharp surge to $0.07 was beaten back by the bears.

As we entered May, Bitcoin began to climb from the $37.6k area to the $40k mark, and TRX followed in its footsteps and surged to $0.09 from $0.0616. These swing levels were used to plot a set of Fibonacci retracement levels (yellow).

Despite Bitcoin’s sharp rejection at $40k, TRX only pulled back as far as the 61.8% retracement level before bounding higher once again. At the time of writing, TRX was back above the $0.082 demand zone (upper cyan box) and could rise to $0.09 once more.

Rationale

Source: TRX/USDT on TradingView

The RSI hovered around the neutral 50 mark in late April, barring an errant surge to $0.07. This was followed by a far larger rally to $0.09, and the RSI has remained above neutral 50 to show bullish momentum in the past week.

The OBV has also been climbing to show increased demand behind TRX. Hence, the rally is indeed backed by buying pressure. The DMI also showed a strong bullish trend in progress, as both the ADX (yellow) and the +DI (green) were above the 20 mark.

Conclusion
Could TRON maintain this rally, or will it retrace all of the past week’s gains? Buy the rumor, sell the news could already have occurred, and a retest of $0.09 could be a place to look for shorts.

The safest bet is to stay sidelined on TRON. A small long position on the retest of the $0.082 zone can also be attempted, targeting a rally to $0.097, and the trade can be cut on a session close below $0.08.

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