Trump and the Future of the Kosovo–Serbia Dialogue 

In February 2008, nine years after NATO intervention in the former Yugoslavia, Kosovo—backed by the United States—unilaterally declared independence from Serbia. Today, Kosovo’s status and territory remains contested between Belgrade and Pristina. With over 100 countries recognizing its statehood, the region is de facto independent from the Serbian government.  

Despite strong support of Western countries and the presence of American troops, the government in Pristina has struggled to establish control over northern Kosovo, a region predominantly inhabited by Serbs. 

The Belgrade–Pristina negotiations—a series of talks between the governments of Serbia and Kosovo—have been ongoing since 2011. Over the past decade, these talks have led to economic and administrative agreements, but a lasting solution for Kosovo has not been reached. 

The greatest progress in negotiations between Kosovo and Serbia occurred during President Donald Trump’s first administration. In 2020, President Trump and his special envoy for the region, Richard Grenell, brought both sides to the White House. Leveraging his business background, Trump focused on economic issues—a move welcomed by both delegations—which led to the normalization of economic relations between Serbia and Kosovo. 

During these years, the idea of land swap, which would result in the partition of Kosovo, was proposed by several White House officials. Yet Western countries, led by Britain and Germany, blocked discussion of territorial adjustments. 

Trump’s return to the White House could revive discussions on the partition of Kosovo. 

For the past 25 years, Serbia and Kosovo have been locked in a frozen conflict. Tensions reached a critical point last year when clashes erupted between Serbs and Kosovo police as the Pristina government attempted to impose ethnic Albanian mayors in the Serb-majority region of northern Kosovo. The violence resulted in over 40 NATO peacekeepers injured, one Kosovo police officer dead, two injured, and three Serbs killed. 

In the middle of the war in Ukraine, Trump should avoid repeating Biden’s mistake of allowing Russia to stir up a new conflict, this time in the Balkans. Taking proactive steps to initiate territorial talks between Serbia and Kosovo—under American auspices—could foster peace and stability in the region.  

A territorial agreement allowing Serbia to annex the predominantly Serb-inhabited northern region would likely be welcomed in Belgrade. Such a deal would receive support from the Serbian public, which has shown openness to partitioning Kosovo in the past, while opposing its unconditional recognition. 

The partition of Kosovo could greatly improve Serbia’s relations with Western countries. Although traditionally a U.S. ally in both world wars and the Cold War, Serbia has recently shifted toward China and Russia, largely in search of support on the Kosovo issue. Resolving the conflict with Kosovo would allow Belgrade to pursue a pro-Western foreign policy: EU and NATO memberships, without concerns of backlash from Beijing and Moscow. 

Serbia wouldn’t be the only one to benefit from such an agreement. Kosovo would gain long-sought recognition from Belgrade and could finally secure membership in the United Nations—a key aspiration of Pristina’s leadership. Freed from the challenges of being an “unfinished state,” Kosovo’s leaders could focus on attracting foreign investment, boosting economic growth, and tackling corruption. 

Many foreign policy experts have described a territorial adjustment between Serbia and Kosovo as an unconventional solution. Kosovo is often regarded as sui generis in international law. A distinctive blend of factors, including the collapse of Yugoslavia, the conflict in Kosovo, and the prolonged period of UN administration, make Kosovo a unique case. Given this, why should conventional solutions apply? 

Returning the Serb-inhabited northern Kosovo to Serbia is a far better approach than land swaps or population transfers, which could open a Pandora’s box in the Balkans. The frequently discussed land swap between Serbia and Kosovo, involves exchanging northern Kosovo, with its Serb-majority population, for a few Albanian-majority towns in southern Serbia.

These towns lie along Pan-European Corridor X, which connects Serbia to North Macedonia and Greece. If Kosovo were to annex this area, international transportation routes could be disrupted by Kosovo’s border control. 

Additionally, the Open Balkan initiative—led by Grenell to promote free trade between Albania, North Macedonia, and Serbia—would face a significant setback. 

In 2020, President Trump successfully brokered the Washington Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo. While the war in Ukraine and the crisis in the Middle East are a top priority of Trump’s agenda, the issue of Kosovo remains on his radar.

News reports indicate that President Aleksandar Vucic of Serbia was among the first dozen world leaders to speak with President-elect Trump. Meanwhile, Grenell—former acting director of national intelligence and Trump’s special envoy for the region—remains a strong candidate for a senior role in the new administration. 

The unlikely duo of Trump and Grenell might just be the region’s hope for lasting peace and stability.

Unconventional problems call for unconventional leaders. If anyone can lead Kosovo and Serbia toward a lasting agreement, it’s Trump. Solving the Kosovo riddle would signal to the world that he is back and ready for action. Such an agreement could pave the way for reconciliation between Albanians and Serbs, positioning Serbia as a reliable Western ally in the Balkans.

Upon his return to the White House, Trump could play a role in facilitating negotiations between Belgrade and Pristina, building on the progress he made four years ago. With Trump back in charge and continued diplomatic efforts, there may be a path toward a lasting peace in the region.