Trump Star Power Key to White House Win

It was a real missed opportunity when Kid Rock declined to run for Senate, saying his rumored candidacy was just a publicity stunt. 

Not because the Senate necessarily needed another statesman like Kid Rock. The man after all rhymed “things” with “things” in “All Summer Long,” which neither Warren Zevon nor Lynyrd Skynyrd would have done. 

But Kid Rock running for Senate in Michigan on essentially Mitt Romney’s platform would have been an important experiment in the study of whether Donald Trump wins because of his celebrity or because of his populism.

There is no question Trump’s celebrity helps. His fame is the reason he can get enough earned — read free — media to overcome being massively outspent by Hillary Clinton and Kamala Harris. (He was the incumbent president against Joe Biden.)

Trump’s wealth and business holdings played a big role in why he was able to win the presidency as a political neophyte. His perceived managerial skills were why people entrusted him to run the federal government. 

And there is obviously an emotional connection Trump forged with his hardcore supporters that transcends ideology or policy. He is not only the teetotaler they would most like to have a beer with but the only political figure they trust.

Even Trump’s lowest points demonstrate this. Nobody is storming the Capitol for Mitt Romney. They didn’t do so for Hillary Clinton, despite professing to believe that the Russians stole the election from her. (It should not need saying, but since it does: The point here isn’t that storming the Capitol is good — it is obviously not — but this is illustrative of a commitment to Trump that few other political figures could match.)

Most incumbents would have lost an election conducted during a pandemic-induced recession in a landslide. Trump came within 43,000 votes in three states of winning a second term, which was a key indication that he was going to be formidable in a rematch once the pandemic was over but inflation had begun.

But these things explain why Trump wins when Blake Masters does not. They don’t explain why he wins when Mitt Romney — whose father was the governor of Michigan, for Pete’s sake — does not.

It beggars belief that Trump would win the Rust Belt based on fame and bravado alone if he were running on Social Security privatization, free trade, and amnesty for illegal immigrants. (Amnesty for illegal immigrants was a bridge too far for Romney, in fact.)

Perhaps someone like Trump could win with a different electoral coalition with a different platform. Arnold Schwarzenegger, for example. But not the coalition Trump actually put together to win the White House twice.

The reason this is once again relevant is that Trump has for the second time around tried to assemble a Cabinet more representative of the coalition that elected him. Many, perhaps most, Senate Republicans want him to have an administration that looks like the people who voted for both Trump and Romney.

It is easy to imagine a scenario where Nikki Haley might be able to win with a different coalition, though it has been 20 years since a Republican like her has won a national election. It is also difficult for her to win the Republican nomination. 

But Ron DeSantis, not to mention J.D. Vance, would probably need to win with something like Trump’s 2024 coalition. Indeed, they would likely need to build on it further. That may not be necessary to win a Senate seat in a red state. But it probably is to carry a purple state, which Trump was able to do much more often than Republican Senate candidates. 

That doesn’t mean Republicans suddenly need to be wild about Robert F. Kennedy Jr., labor unions, or anything of the sort. I’m not a big fan of the PRO Act myself and suspect Trump and RFK Jr. will eventually find themselves in conflict.  But it does mean senators should perhaps more seriously grapple with how Trump won and what that means for the Republican future, even if they find some of his new political allies odd (or worse).

If all Republicans get out of this period of unified government is a ricketier version of the same tax cut they passed seven years ago, this stint in power could be short-lived.

Nevertheless, there are many Republicans in Washington who believe they would have even more power if they had nominated a less chaotic, more conventional leader. They’ll be singing “Sweet Home Nikki Haley” all summer long.