What's next for Justin Verlander? And what can we expect from his latest foray into free agency?

Two years ago, as baseball’s winter meetings approached, Justin Verlander was one of the hottest names on the free-agent market. Weeks earlier, the ultra-accomplished right-hander had added yet another accolade to his collection when he won the 2022 AL Cy Young Award unanimously, becoming the 11th pitcher in MLB history to win three Cy Youngs. Not only had he delivered a sparkling campaign in his first year back from Tommy John surgery, but he had also done so at age 39, making him the fourth-oldest pitcher to claim the game’s top pitching prize. And if his individual triumphs weren’t enough, Verlander’s Astros had just won the World Series.

Such a sensational season at such an advanced age made Verlander an especially unique free agent following the expiration of his Astros contract. Still seemingly at the top of his craft, Verlander deserved a significant payday. But for a pitcher who was about to turn 40, it seemed likely that such a deal would come in the form of a shorter-term pact with a massive average annual value.

Sure enough, the 2022 winter meetings in San Diego started with the New York Mets signing Verlander to a two-year, $86.66 million deal — one with a nearly identical $43.3M AAV to the three-year, $130M contract the Mets gave fellow future Hall of Fame right-hander Max Scherzer the winter prior. Signing Verlander was one of several huge expenditures for the Mets that offseason, as they also spent big to retain Edwin Diaz and Brandon Nimmo, in addition to signing Japanese right-hander Kodai Senga to a $75M deal.

But the active offseason failed to translate to results the next season, prompting the Mets to dramatically deconstruct their roster at the 2023 trade deadline, including sending Verlander back to the Astros, ending his stint in Queens prematurely. It was a tenure further abbreviated by a spring training shoulder injury that forced Verlander to miss the first month of the season, meaning he made only 16 starts for New York — a stunningly small total considering the titanic contract the team had given him months earlier.

As a 40-year-old in 2023, Verlander didn't pitch at a Cy Young level for the Mets or the Astros, but he was still an above-average starter once he returned from injury. While his fastball velocity had dropped a tick and his strikeout rate declined considerably, from 27.8% in 2022 to 21.5% in 2023, his stellar run prevention was intact: Verlander’s 3.22 ERA ranked ninth among qualified starters. He also acquitted himself well in the postseason during Houston’s run to another ALCS (2.95 ERA in 18 1/3 innings), expanding his lengthy playoff résumé with three more solid October outings.

Back for his age-41 season and the second year of his lucrative contract, shoulder issues again delayed the start to Verlander’s 2024 season, this time for a couple of weeks. He posted a 3.95 ERA across 10 starts before a neck injury sent him back to the injured list, where he joined a litany of Astros arms on the shelf. He returned in late August but struggled down the stretch, to the tune of an 8.10 ERA across 33 1/3 innings of work. Verlander’s poor form did not ultimately cost Houston in the standings, but it certainly damaged his prospects of cracking the playoff rotation as the Astros prepared for October.

Verlander’s final start of the season came on Saturday, Sept. 28, in Cleveland in what turned out to be Houston’s final regular-season game of 2024, as Game 162 on Sunday was rained out. The final line — six innings, seven hits, three runs allowed, zero walks, five strikeouts — was hardly anything special, particularly by Verlander’s lofty standards. But it was comfortably his best outing since his return from the neck injury and an encouraging sign after a trying few months.

"It's probably the best I've felt since coming back so far,” Verlander said afterward.

His secondary stuff was sharp that day, as he threw a higher percentage of sliders and changeups than he had in any other start all season. His fastball touched 96.9 mph, his hardest pitch since returning from injury and tied for his second-hardest pitch of the season. He threw 74% of his 95 pitches for strikes, his highest rate of the season. And it was just the second start all season in which he did not walk or hit a batter, with the other such outing coming in his first start of the season on April 19.

“I'm somebody who tries to be realistic with myself, and I know I haven't been nearly as good as I need to be,” Verlander said of his struggles leading up to his regular-season finale. “I didn't have the luxury of time. I had to come back and try to figure this thing out and pitch. The only way you can find out where you're at is by pitching. And it's been tough, but slowly gaining on it.

“I also know there's been some bad luck mixed in there, but, you know, I'm not going to let that be a crutch and say, ‘No, it's just that.’ It's not — I haven't been as sharp as I needed to be. But I feel like I've been inching in the right direction.”

Earlier that week, the Astros had completed their epic chase-down of the Mariners and clinched another division crown, meaning that game had minimal stakes for either team. But for Verlander, still searching for something resembling his ace self, the outing carried significant weight, as it represented another opportunity to remind himself and the rest of the baseball world what he's capable of.

“To be frank, I wish this wasn't the end of the season,” Verlander reflected further. “With somebody, myself, who works as hard as I possibly can to figure it out … usually there's something I can get to click, like, ‘All right, that's it.’ But this injury has been a little bit different than that. It's just been a little off, and there's been nothing making it click. So it's been inching in the right direction. This would be nice to build off of.”

Had the Astros advanced past Detroit in the wild-card round, Verlander might have been added to the ALDS roster, perhaps giving him the chance to build on the momentum from his final regular-season start. Instead, the Tigers upset the Astros in Houston, ending the Astros’ streak of seven consecutive trips to the ALCS and initiating Verlander’s free agency earlier than expected.

"You never know what's gonna happen,” Verlander said after his start in Cleveland about the possibility of it being his final outing as an Astro. “But I've got some work to do this offseason personally. So that's kind of where my focus is at. And then if I end up back here, great. Love Houston, love the people, love my teammates. I've had an incredible run.

"If not, will tip my cap and say thank you for an incredible journey.”

While Verlander finished on a strong individual note in September, it was a far cry from his previous foray into free agency. Things are very different now. His name has spent scarce time in the headlines over the first month-plus of the hot stove season. Perhaps that will begin to change as this year’s winter meetings commence next week in Dallas. He’s likely to sign a one-year deal with a contender, but so far, we’ve heard little beyond the expected dialogue between Verlander and his incumbent employer in Houston — fairly standard protocol for any free agent in the early stages of the winter.

Verlander is hardly alone in his relative exclusion from such discussions across the industry; Juan Soto has predictably dominated the discourse, with only a handful of other transactions breaking through to interrupt the historic pursuit of the 26-year-old outfielder. But as a future Hall of Famer who firmly believes he still has something to offer major-league teams, Verlander’s free agency is unquestionably one of the more fascinating subplots of this winter. And while Cooperstown is sure to call at some point down the line, the ending of his illustrious career has yet to be written.

Whether he stays in Houston or starts a new chapter elsewhere, Verlander will be attempting to defy the age limits historically imposed on his position. Since the turn of the century, just 12 pitchers have stayed in a big-league rotation for most or all of an MLB season at age-42 or older, and very few of them have been especially effective.

The iconic Hall of Fame Braves trio of Greg Maddux, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine all pitched the final seasons of their careers at age 42, with only Maddux making it through a full year healthy and none of them posting an above-average ERA. Randy Johnson made 33 starts in his age-42 season with the Yankees in 2006 and delivered three more solid campaigns after that, but none resembled that of a frontline arm. Roger Clemens, whose late-career excellence has been notoriously tarnished by his connection to performance-enhancing drugs, is the only example this century of true dominance at such an advanced age: He finished third in AL Cy Young voting as a 42-year-old in 2005 and pitched well in two seasons after that.

Beyond those legends, a quartet of lefties stuck around and started games into their 40s: David Wells, Kenny Rogers, Jamie Moyer and, most recently, Rich Hill, none of whom provided above-average run prevention after turning 42. The same can be said about knuckleballers Tim Wakefield and R.A. Dickey, and their rare skillset made them obvious outliers. Finally, there’s Bartolo Colon, whose All-Star campaign with the Mets in 2016 was arguably the best non-Clemens age-42-or-older season among these dozen arms but who fell off after that in his final two years as a big-league starter (6.13 ERA).

These examples of largely ineffective older pitchers demonstrate the challenge ahead for Verlander. After his tremendous Cy Young season at age 39, it seemed reasonable to expect him to continue to pitch well into his mid-40s, and he regularly spoke of his intention to do so. This past year might've put a damper on those ambitions, but it’s too early to say that dream is entirely dead. While there’s little left for Verlander to prove, he remains resolute that he has more to offer. Three hundred wins might be a stretch (he’s at 262 right now), but he’s just 84 strikeouts away from becoming the 10th pitcher in MLB history to reach 3,500 Ks. And, of course, there are always more championships to chase.

If his health cooperates — a big if — maybe he can build off his strong finish to 2024 and make the necessary adjustments to become a reliable rotation option again. His Cy Young-caliber days might be behind him, but a lot of teams would happily pay for the version of Verlander we saw in 2023. Whichever team that ends up being, the contract is sure to be a fraction of what Verlander received two winters ago. But no matter his salary or what jersey he’s wearing, Verlander’s 2025 will be one of the more intriguing campaigns to watch — to see whether he defies his age once again or succumbs to the same struggles as his 42-and-up predecessors.