Quick bites
- Small herd sizes in the US and high consumer demand have pushed up prices.
- Brazil, Australia and New Zealand have taken on the demand left by the US.
- Importing countries such as China will be hit the hardest.
- Meat companies will struggle to escape a market with high prices across the board.
Beef in markets globally has been reaching record highs. What is putting pressure on prices? And which regions of the world could be hit the hardest?
Why is the price of beef increasing?
The price of beef is increasing because of an imbalance between demand and supply.
On the one side is supply. Herd size has been shrinking, particularly in the US. Persistent drought and processing plant closures, as well as changing consumer preferences, have reduced it significantly, explains a market reporter for Expana.
As of mid-2025, cattle slaughter in the US is 6.5% lower than it was the same time in 2024.
Because of such smaller herds, the industry has been focusing on rebuilding them, meaning it has fewer cows to spare for slaughter, explains Ralitsa Videnova, market research analyst for Vesper.
Output has also been affected by animal welfare regulations in the EU, an outbreak of cattle-killing fly New World Screwworm in Mexico, lower calving rates in the UK, and tariff pressures worldwide, Expana explains.
Coming up against this is an increase in consumer demand. “Strong consumer demand is sustaining feeder cattle prices, but the supply response will take time to materialise. Until then, constrained production levels will continue to support firm beef prices globally,” explains Vesper’s Videnova.
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How are other countries affected?
This shortage has created an opportunity for exporters elsewhere in the world. Australia, New Zealand, and Brazil have stepped in to meet demand.
Brazil has particularly benefitted from this, seeing a 52% year-on-year increase of beef export turnover in June.
This is due to both a 25% rise in export volumes, and a 22% rise in free on board (FOB) prices (prices charged at location).
In China, Australian beef has largely replaced American, according to Expana, partially due to trade tensions with the US. Australian beef is also seeing greater penetration into other East Asian markets, such as Korea and Japan.
On the flip side, importing countries and regions, such as China and the EU, will be hit hard by the increases.
China, for example, has reduced its imports by 10% since last year, according to Vesper’s Videnova. Due to fierce competition, it has also had to increase the prices it pays in order to avoid a shortage.
How will meat companies be affected?
In a word, badly. Meat companies will be hard-pressed to “escape” a market with rapidly rising costs. Most significantly affected will be the smaller businesses.
“Large corporations often have more room to switch suppliers or use bulk purchasing to hedge against short-term price increases. Smaller businesses, however, face a tougher battle adopting procurement strategies due to limited flexibility and funding.”
The impact of the cost-of-living crisis is also putting pressure on meat companies in many markets, as consumers are often reluctant to spend big on meat.
