Summary of the cocoa crisis
- Cocoa prices have been at unprecedented heights for the past year and a half
- Unpredictable weather patterns, linked to climate change, have been a major cause of this
- Because of low incomes, farmers have been forced to keep older trees, which have lower yields
- Swollen shoot virus, spread by mealybugs, has been a plague on the cocoa crop
- Gold mining in Ghana has also impacted yields, harming soil health with chemicals from the process
In April last year, cocoa prices rose to heights not seen in half a century, sending industry into a tailspin.
The cocoa crisis has brought with it widespread uncertainty among producers, put pressure on supply, and even boosted the development of the market for cocoa alternatives.
Prices have stabilised since the heights of the crisis, but they are still far higher than they were before it began in 2024. Manufacturers are already getting used to a new normal.
It’s crucial to understand just what’s going wrong in the sector.
Weather patterns
One of the key causes of the cocoa crisis is weather having a negative impact on yields.
The process of cocoa production requires very specific climatic conditions. As the effects of climate change worsen, weather is becoming more unpredictable, meaning that cocoa farmers are not getting the conditions they need for the best yields.
For example, the cocoa beans’ fermentation process can be affected by weather in multiple ways. Too much rain can lower the temperature, meaning that the process takes longer. If the temperature is too high, the beans become dry and lose the nutrients and sugar needed for the process.
Studies have shown a clear negative relationship between cocoa yield and higher temperatures. High temperatures can reduce photosynthesis and transpiration of cocoa plants. Putting trees in shade helps mitigate this problem, but does not completely solve it.
Alongside heat, drought can also have a severe effect on cocoa yields, also reducing photosynthesis.
Swollen shoot virus
Cacao swollen shoot virus is a major crop infection that occurs heavily in cocoa-growing regions of west Africa. It is transmitted by mealybugs.
The main symptoms are stem swelling (after which the disease is named), vein clearing (where the veins of a leaf become unnaturally clear), and blotches or streaks on the leaves.
In extreme cases the leaves may die back and fall off, leading to smaller and distorted pods. The disease can affect crop yield by 30-50%. Within two to three years of infection it eventually kills the tree.
Rates of infection have been high. Last year, one of Ghana’s largest growing regions reported an 81% infection rate.
Ageing trees
Because cocoa farmers often have low incomes, they are frequently forced to harvest from old cocoa trees. These trees are sometimes a decade or more past the point where they should have been replaced.
These old trees do not produce yields as significantly as younger trees, meaning that overall yields are reduced and the price of cocoa is impacted. Even the soil around these trees is often being depleted due to lack of fertiliser, which many farmers can’t afford.
Furthermore, ageing trees are more susceptible to disease, increasing their vulnerability to swollen shoot virus.
Industry efforts to increase cocoa farmer income have seen a boost in recent years.
Gold mining
One region-specific factor pushing up cocoa prices is gold mining in Ghana, one of the largest cocoa-producing countries.
Low returns from cocoa farming have increasingly pushed farmers into illegal gold mining, locally known as ‘galamsey’.
Substances from the mining process, such as mercury, lead and arsenic, have had a negative impact on soil health in cocoa plantations, which are near where the mining takes place.
