Summary of confectionery and GLP-1s
- Interest in confectionery is declining
- Engagement with chocolate in particular has been hit
- Prices on menus are being lowered for confectionery
- Consumer drivers are focused on satiety, health and wellbeing
- The data is consistent with the motivations of GLP-1 weight-loss drug users
Confectionery sales are on the decline. Companies such as Barry Callebaut, Mondelēz International and Nestlé have been experiencing lower demand, with consumers less interested in buying chocolate products in particular than before.
While many point to price increases following the cocoa commodity crisis as the main reason for this, could there be other reasons as well? Could the success of GLP-1s be drawing consumers away from sweeter foods?
How do GLP-1s work?
Glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists, or GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, artificially activate the GLP-1 hormone, which makes people feel satiated (full). They have also been known to reduce people’s desire for sweet flavours and alcohol .
Popularity of confectionery in Europe
In several key European countries, including Spain, France, Germany and the UK, confectionery is on the decline.
Engagement with confectionery is down the most overall in Spain, according to data from Tastewise, with a decline of 11.21% year-on-year. This is followed by Germany (9%), the UK (6%), and France (2%). No country showed an increase in engagement.
The chocolate segment is driving the decline, with engagement in sugar actually increasing in all countries save the UK. There are also some one-off anomalies – in Spain, for example, the gummies segment has seen a massive growth of nearly 27%.
Also read → How is GLP-1 changing eating habits in Europe?
There has been significant price deflation for chocolate and sugar on menus in Spain, the UK and Germany, and only a slight price increase in France. This is in spite of the cocoa crisis pushing up commodity prices and prices in retail.
Confectionery trends and GLP-1s
The prominence of GLP-1s was initially seen mainly in the US market, but the weight-loss drugs are now found in European markets such as Spain, Germany, the UK, and France.
They have already significantly changed eating patterns, with consumers ditching foods such as takeaways and pizza when using the drugs.
While there is no hard proof that the trends in the confectionery market in particular are linked to the prevalence of GLP-1s, Tastewise speculates that they might be.
Confectionery’s category softness is seen most prominently in calorie-dense chocolate, suggesting that is those who are reducing calories who are leading to the category decline.
Furthermore, the decline in chocolate pricing suggests a potential resizing of portions, according to Tastewise, which could be a result of catering to the reduced appetites of GLP-1 users.
How consumer motivations are changing
It’s not only engagement and prices that are in line with GLP-1-related trends. Consumer motivations are also changing, and consistent with GLP-1 use, according to Tastewise.
In France, for example, consumers are increasingly driven by ‘guilt’ in their food purchases.
In Spain, people are motivated by the desire for a sense of wellbeing, which is also impacting treat frequency.
German consumers are motivated by the desire for ‘rich’ and ‘satiating’ food.
Even in the UK, drivers for consumption are split between terminology around nutrition and around indulgence.
Overall, patterns in the data “could reflect fewer spontaneous treat occasions among GLP-1 users, especially in chocolate, with some substitution toward lighter sugar confectionery and gummies”, explains a spokesperson for Tastewise.
