Summary of potential future cocoa growing areas
- High cocoa prices have been triggered by conditions in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire
- Other African countries such as Nigeria and Cameroon have some advantages for farmers
- A significant supply may be on its way from Latin American countries including Ecuador, Brazil and Peru
- Conditions are different there, with witches’ broom being the main threat to crops
- An expansion to new areas, led by cost pressures in West Africa, has the potential to lead to more deforestation
Despite stabilising, cocoa prices remain sky-high. Post-2024, the treasured bean has been so expensive that manufacturers have been forced to make compromises.
In the UK, some chocolate products have fallen below the legal minimum cocoa content to even be described as “chocolate”. Meanwhile, cocoa giants have already started moving towards alternatives.
Many of the severe problems are found in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, where ageing trees, weather patterns and crop pests have lead to impaired yields and hampered production. These two countries collectively make up around 60% of global production, according to Fairtrade.
Are there regions where these problems will be less severe?
Other African countries could be better for farmers
There are other potential regions where cocoa could thrive. One of these is Cameroon. To the east of Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, the central African country has the potential to see cocoa production substantially increase, according to the charity Mighty Earth. It currently makes up around 5% of global production.
Despite this expansion, Cameroon could never replace Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire as the key cocoa growing destination, stresses Nicko Debenham, a sustainability advisor specialising in cocoa.
There are a few key differences between Cameroon and the larger cocoa producers to its west.
Unlike Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, the cocoa buying system in Cameroon, along with neighbouring Nigeria, is privatised, meaning that cocoa is traded on the spot, explains Debenham.
This means that farmers will often get higher prices for their produce.
Furthermore, swollen shoot virus is not as prevalent in Central Africa as in West Africa.
Latin America: The future of cocoa?
However, Debenham predicts that the more significant supply of the future will come from countries in South America, such as Peru, Ecuador and Brazil.
“The combined increases across the multiple origins would contribute to shortfalls but you have to bear in mind that Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana combined supply 60% of global production so material lowering of their crops will have to be compensated from only 40% of supply regions,” Debenham points out.
Some of the challenges are different in Latin America as well. For example, cocoa farmers must contend with witches broom, an infection which causes shoot proliferation and discoloured leaves, and can reduce cocoa yields. The cause is usually fungal, viral, bacterial, or due to insect activity.
However, disease-resistant plant materials are currently being developed, Debenham explains.
Is there a risk of deforestation?
Expansion into new land is tricky, Debenham points out. It must take regulations such as the EUDR into account, and needs to be on agricultural land if it is to comply.
This raises the question, could such expansion bring about more deforestation?
According to a report from Mighty Earth, the answer is yes. It reports expansion into Cameroon leading to significant levels of deforestation in the central African country.
According to the report, the country has lost around 4.21% of its forest cover since 2020, the cut-off point of the EUDR.
