In a wide-ranging, pre-election preview, United Independent Movement (UIM) President Neil de Beer torpedoes rumours of a Multi-Party Charter (MPC) collapse; gives his take on the daggers flying in former President Jacob Zuma’s MK party; and hails Patriotic Alliance (PA) President Gayton McKenzie’s combat strategy, saying the “Green Machine” is moving down to the Cape like an “oil slick” and has left the Democratic Alliance (DA) overwhelmed by the Brown Child Revolution. He discusses a post-election three-faction scenario comprising the MPC, the RET (Radical Economic Transformation), and the African National Congress (ANC). “And the question is, whom of those three are going to have coffee with whom, except I know they already having coffee.” However, De Beer vows that his UIM party would never form a government with the ANC or the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). “Then we go it alone. We cannot sit with this country’s fiscal, economical enemy.”
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Highlights from the interview
- ANC’s Logistics Dominance: De Beer emphasizes the ANC’s logistical prowess over political strategy, noting their ability to mobilize voters effectively.
- Viral Statement: De Beer’s statement about the ANC’s focus on logistics has gained national attention, highlighting a widely recognized aspect of the party’s operations.
- Voter Turnout Analysis: He discusses voter registration and the potential turnout, estimating a significant drop from registered voters to actual voters.
- ANC’s Electoral Needs: De Beer calculates the ANC’s required voter numbers for electoral success, highlighting the party’s strategic understanding of its needs.
- Potential Anarchy: There’s concern about post-election scenarios, including the possibility of anarchy and the ANC’s response to a loss of majority.
- Defence of Constitution: In case of crisis or refusal to transfer power, De Beer advocates for legal recourse, including international bodies like the ICJ, to defend constitutional principles.
- National Stability: He underscores South Africa’s strategic importance for global stability, especially in light of potential regional crises.
- People as Solution: De Beer stresses that politicians are not the sole solution to South Africa’s challenges; instead, he calls for unity among the people regardless of divisions.
- Personal Commitment: He expresses personal dedication to the country’s freedom and unity, citing his role as a grandfather as a motivating factor.
- Call for Unity: De Beer’s final message is a plea for unity among South Africans to overcome challenges and fulfill the nation’s potential.
Extended transcript of the interview ___STEADY_PAYWALL___
00:00:05:13 – 00:00:15:19
Chris Steyn:
With only weeks to go before the election, we get an update from Neil De Beer, the president of United Independent Movement, a party in the multi-party charter. Welcome, Neil.
00:00:15:21 – 00:00:44:14
Neil De Beer:
Hey. Good morning. A few days to go. This madness, this jostling, this lying, this promising is over. And then hopefully, people like me can get into Parliament to get stuck in so that we can change the trajectory of this country for a better future. So yes. Good to see you. Good, as always, to be on your show.
00:00:44:16 – 00:00:48:16
Chris Steyn:
Might we start with the MPC? How is it holding up?
00:00:48:18 – 00:01:15:01
Neil De Beer:
It’s holding. You know, Chris, I saw some flabbergasting scenarios of people speaking and saying it’s collapsed. It’s over. Absolute rubbish, utter rubbish. I am a man that doesn’t waste my time. I don’t mince my words. If something is not conducive or is not constructive, I’ll leave. I’m there. In actual fact, I chaired the last one, of our leadership MPC. Every two weeks we have our differences.
00:01:15:03 – 00:01:41:02
Neil De Beer:
We are allowed to have our opinions, and it is our right as individual parties to continue raising our own manifestos, our own ideology. But the fact that the MPC has collapsed is utter rubbish and nonsense. We will keep on going. We get over it. We debated; the leaders that are sitting around that table are not children. We know what we are facing.
00:01:41:04 – 00:02:04:06
Neil De Beer:
We are not the alternative hope to this country. We are the government in waiting, and that is a fact. So, we we, we we chastise each other. But Chris, we also motivate each other that we stay the course and that we continue moving together to forge a government for the people, by the people, and indefinitely for this country’s future.
00:02:04:12 – 00:02:17:18
Chris Steyn:
Neil, what do you make of the latest Ipsos poll that gives the ANC 40.2, the DA 20.9, the EFF 11.5, and MK 8.4 percent?
Read more: Gayton declares all-out war on the DA…
00:02:17:20 – 00:02:40:05
Neil De Beer:
A poll is like a casino. You know, you put it on red or black, one green. I must tell you, I did not always put relevance to polls because I think sometimes they are biased and sometimes they work on emotion. But what we now realize, Chris, is that continual polling from different segments, in actual fact, creates an algorithm.
00:02:40:07 – 00:03:04:11
Neil De Beer:
So that is important. We can’t just write off polls. We’ve got to look at it because they are, may I call it, snapshots of opinion. And I’m saying that you can see the algorithm starting to move, that no doubt the ANC will not get 50 plus one. And you can see that MK party after its third victory in court is absolutely gaining momentum.
00:03:04:11 – 00:03:25:20
Neil De Beer:
But I think the scenarios of over 12 and 13, 40%, I think it’s a bit much. The DA is constantly staying by 20 and above. I think that’s where the average parties like myself. The New Kids on the block. We’re looking for the 0.8 to point nine, the 1%, the relevance being the 1%. So we’ve got membership in Parliament.
00:03:25:20 – 00:03:34:22
Neil De Beer:
But the poll, I don’t think it’s far off. I don’t think though 40. I think they’re going to scrummage between 42 and 44.
00:03:35:00 – 00:03:47:14
Chris Steyn:
Neil, now in a rather dramatic development, MK has expelled Jabulani Khumalo, the very man who registered the party on behalf of the former president, Jacob Zuma. Do you have any inside info on that?
00:03:47:19 – 00:04:26:00
Neil De Beer:
Et tu Brutus. I was always told that the enemy outside is absolutely known, but it is the enemy inside that will put that dagger. So I’ve been in politics actively now three years and boy, the daggers are out. But, So, Yeah, I’m not surprised. you cannot compete on the platform of UMSholozi. Jacob Zuma is not a person that allows his platform of charisma to be intimidated, questioned, or to be taken over by anybody.
00:04:26:00 – 00:04:51:22
Neil De Beer:
And I think that was just the setting crack. I think not the lost, by the way. More daggers coming out or as he says, umshini wami. So, yeah, I’m not surprised. I think they are working remember, they are a revolutionary RET fundamental liberation idea. They’re a cousin of the ANC. And my point of view is we mustn’t be surprised if more leaders, fall by the wayside.
00:04:52:00 – 00:04:57:03
Neil De Beer:
There’s one leader in that party, and that is Jacob Zuma. And the people around him.
00:04:57:05 – 00:05:08:22
Chris Steyn:
Well, Neil, meanwhile, the Patriotic Alliance of Gayton McKenzie has taken two more wards in the Western Cape. Do you think the DA will be able to hold on to the Western Cape the way it’s going?
00:05:09:00 – 00:05:33:02
Neil De Beer:
No. Emphatically, no. You know, I you know, I’m a person that is a student for the art of war. I love that I come from war. I’m a big soldier myself. May I know, say a veteran, but I’m looking at this and I’m going. What a strategy from Gayton McKenzie. Hoss, my Bru. But I mean, look at the strategy.
00:08:03:23 – 00:08:06:09
Chris Steyn:
And on the latest wins Oudtshoorn and Swartland.
00:08:06:12 – 00:08:10:09
Neil De Beer:
The oil slick east moving down to the Cape.
00:08:10:11 – 00:08:14:21
Chris Steyn:
In how many ways that the DA not drop the ball in the Western Cape Neil.
00:08:14:23 – 00:08:42:08
Neil De Beer:
Well, you know, I mean, I’m in partnership in a multi-party charter with them. You know, I say my say. I think John understands that I made it very clear publicly last night and last week, this rumormongering of the DA having to look maybe at a possibility if we don’t get 50 plus one to work with the ANC and that rumor going on and the denial, I understand it.
00:08:42:08 – 00:09:12:21
Neil De Beer:
They have to do like I’m categorically very clear. The United Independent Movement, which by the way, plays a pinnacle role behind the scene in many areas. We are clear we will never form a government, no matter what with the ANC or the EFF. Then we go with the low, we cannot sit with this country’s fiscal economical, enemy.
00:09:13:01 – 00:09:53:22
Neil De Beer:
It’s just not going to work. So I’m clear that so we differ. But here’s the analysis. The analysis is, in my opinion, they got it wrong in the Western Cape. They woke up too late. They did not realize that the enemy Trojan horse themselves insight. So yes, the analysis goes, number one, they absolutely stood up and took side in an Israel-Palestine conflict, maybe without knowing that the Muslim vote, the people that follow the fight of Islam within the Cape area, within the Western Cape is huge.
00:09:54:00 – 00:10:40:07
Neil De Beer:
And that surprises me that they missed that intelligence. Now they couldn’t but I think they made, the fact that they would overcome it and that the Israel-Palestine scenario would blow away. It won’t. It’s been there 75 years. And in the latest one, they got a slap back like you won’t believe. Me. So that’s the one. The second one is may I call it the colored, the indigenous revolution that has stood up, you know, Chris, the colored community, which I have always been involved in, which since my struggle days, the days of Anton Fransch, the days of Alan Boesak, the UDF, you cannot undermine the fact that the colored community of this country has always
00:10:40:07 – 00:11:10:11
Neil De Beer:
been set aside in apartheid, they were too black. And this democratic dispensation democratic, they too white. It’s wrong that revolution of the brown child has exploded for the DA at the wrong time, at the wrong moment, and they cannot curve it. So people like Gayton, people like Fadiel Adams of the NCC, the Patriotic Alliance, they are not sitting on the buy side.
00:11:10:11 – 00:11:50:23
Neil De Beer:
They stirring and obviously they’re a political party. So they will be capturing this colored, this indigenous, this brown child revolution, which, by the way, the time had to come, they had to stand up. It is as simple as that. And the DA, in my opinion, are overwhelmed. They do not know how to now curb this fire. And it’s burning, and it will continue to burn until I would say the election is passed, and then it will start 18 months later, again to take over all the councils that they can in the 2026 elections, the DA one strike, Israel, Palestine misread the Colored revolution.
00:11:51:01 – 00:12:13:11
Neil De Beer:
And thirdly, it’s very difficult to be the government of the day and then defend yourselves on all these fronts simultaneously. So I think I’m very interested in the in the battle nationally. But, Chris, the Western Province, the Western Cape battle, I am absolutely intrigued to see what’s coming. I think a coalition government is coming.
00:12:13:13 – 00:12:24:00
Chris Steyn:
Now talking about coalitions. Despite the repeated denials by the Democratic Alliance that it will go into a coalition with African National Congress. What are your predictions.
00:12:24:21 – 00:12:28:05
Chris Steyn:
If the votes go the way it’s predicted to go?
00:12:28:07 – 00:12:47:06
Neil De Beer:
I’m giving you an analysis. As a person, I’ve got nothing to lose. I’m going to Parliament. I know my little party, yeah, is going to get seats in the National Assembly. We are not contesting the provincial ballot because we want to go national. I’ve been around. I’ve been 55 years. I’ve been in and out of government.
00:12:47:08 – 00:13:14:21
Neil De Beer:
I understand what’s coming. Both sides. So I’m heading to Parliament no matter en dan moet jy sien. Then you are going to see some lightning and thunder. But put that as it may. So I’ve got no massive ambitions, of governance. If the MPC wins, which we pray, I will be part of that government. If we lose, I will be the most formidable one figure two seat or five seat in that Parliament.
00:13:15:01 – 00:13:49:00
Neil De Beer:
You know it’s coming. But here’s the analysis. So I’ve got nothing to gain by saying left or right it is. If I was the DA, just put your cap on, I would do it. I mean, anybody that sits here and says that a party that is so eager, border, desperate at times to govern, has been in Parliament now for 30 years, no matter the format, it’s taken as the DA and it wants to govern.
00:13:49:01 – 00:14:10:15
Neil De Beer:
It wants to have the opportunity to run the country. Now your question is, do you govern at all cost? Now, if you go down the shall we govern at all costs? Then they must talk to the ANC. Because, relevance. If the MPC does not get 50 plus one, they want to govern, they will have to talk to them.
00:14:10:17 – 00:14:30:12
Neil De Beer:
They have no choice. The other options is what? And now now. If you may, I would like you to. At the end, let me explain. The three factions that have now appeared in this country. That’s interesting, but let’s talk DA/ANC. They have to talk cause and they and if they not talking, they dumb. I’m now talking as a person that would have been in the DA.
00:14:30:13 – 00:14:52:12
Neil De Beer:
You have to talk. This is politics. This isn’t, you know, I & J – Sea Harvest en dis is my snoek. what a lot of rubbish you in the net you there. You know, you watch across the bow and if you see them catching the snoek, you pray, they move and you in. This is called governance. So the DA is trying to in my opinion, you know.
00:14:52:12 – 00:15:21:17
Neil De Beer:
know because the constituents doesn’t want it. It’s not the time in the day to say Wala we talking. It’s no did you make a call. So, you know you got to keep the back door open. So in my opinion they will talk to them. They will have to keep the fires burning because if the MPC, by no matter of its own or the readiness of this country to move fails, I’m telling you that the DA wants to govern.
00:15:21:19 – 00:15:46:15
Neil De Beer:
So they will have to talk to someone or remain in opposition. Now, I’m not saying it’s happening, I’m just saying my personal feeling as an ex-person that was in intelligence, not IQ intelligence. So I’m saying that might happen. If it doesn’t happen, fine. But yes, a eureka moment in a thing which an internal ANC person told me last week.
00:15:46:17 – 00:16:18:22
Neil De Beer:
The statement he made was so simplistic but yet so relevant. He said, just remember, Neil, the African National Congress is not fighting this year to govern. They are fighting to survive. Now, Chris, listen to that. They are not fighting to govern. They are fighting to survive. Now let me tell you, that is a different fight than the fight of arrogant governance.
00:16:19:00 – 00:16:45:02
Neil De Beer:
They fighting to survive. And when this animal is fighting to survive, make sure it will take any, any platform to remain steady and to remain government. That’s my opinion. Sorry, Chris, I’m not telling you. I’m sorry. I’m not telling you anything the people don’t know. I may be just saying it like always.
00:16:45:04 – 00:16:47:23
Chris Steyn:
Let’s talk about those three factions now Neil.
00:16:48:01 – 00:17:14:17
Neil De Beer:
Oh, it’s very clear you can actually see it. you know, I I’m part of it. I’m in that fight and people ask me, but Neil, what, three years you are in three metros, you’re now going to national government. What is your contribution? And here it is, Chris. It is very clear the United Independent Movement will be the party that will keep them all accountable, viciously, without fear.
00:17:14:18 – 00:17:36:03
Neil De Beer:
We will keep them accountable. So I want people to realize that I will be the little pebble in the shoe. I will be the rhetorical hard voice in Parliament that will count them all, no matter what side they are that they stole, or that their moer, gat ek vir hulle moer. Jy moet nou mooi. Now hear me clearly we are were, mate.
00:17:36:05 – 00:17:59:19
Neil De Beer:
It’s just it’s as simple as that. You have the MPC, you have the multi-party charter. It’s the ACDP, the UIM it’s the Freedom Front plus it’s, the DA. It is the it is the IFP and an amalgamation of of of of the of other parties that are city. We are we are about 11. Not all 11 are contesting.
00:17:59:21 – 00:18:29:11
Neil De Beer:
This this election but we are there. So you have the MPC. You now have the awakening of the two belly of the beast, what we call the RET faction. That is now your EFF your MK, and the little dog hound running around of the Ace Magashule’s and the petty hyenas on the prairie sitting there and now formulating the RET cloud.
00:18:29:13 – 00:19:03:08
Neil De Beer:
And then you have the ANC and its cabal. This is where we are. So you have the three factional break 31 days relevance to go 3130 days. And you have the three clouds coming. Here’s an interesting question. MPC RET ANC. What if every single one of them third, a third, a third, you look at them 33, 33, 33 and a third.
Read more: Dreams, myths and realities of Cape Independence: Terrence Corrigan
00:19:03:10 – 00:19:42:14
Neil De Beer:
What happens now? The ANC doesn’t get 33 and a third it gets 42. The RET faction gets 26. The NPC gets 34. Not one governs. So there you sit with the most interesting. Unbelievable. Yes. And exciting 2024 election which Neil De Beer will tell you today. It’s too close to call. And the question is whom of those three are going to have coffee?
00:19:42:16 – 00:19:48:12
Neil De Beer:
With whom? Except I know they already having coffee.
00:19:48:14 – 00:20:06:03
Chris Steyn:
Neil, let’s talk about voter turnout. I don’t think the ANC’s logistical ability can be underestimated, and it has been a concern that at the end of the day, they could still bus in enough voters. What’s your opinion on that now?
00:20:06:05 – 00:20:38:06
Neil De Beer:
Yeah, I hear my statement has gone viral. It’s good to hear some statements do go viral. Some of them not the right ones, but the statement I made that the ANC does not do politics, they do logistics, finally has now gone absolutely national because it’s true. So it’s not the capability of an educated political manifesto or a debate to the masses about the trajectory of their fiscus for the intention to increase GDP.
00:20:38:06 – 00:21:34:16
Neil De Beer:
They don’t get it. They do logistics while we write out and talk about King volume one and two and three about corporate governance, they’re dealing out shirts and eating Kentucky. So 28 million registered to vote in the last three elections. The kind of algorithm of percentage loss of registered voters is about 40%. So if you look at that, it is our opinion that only 18 million of the 28 million will vote if you take the 18 million as a possible because of the algorithm of the past three elections, it could be 30 because of the, I think, urgency and the marketing of this election as one of the most important elections since ’94.
00:21:34:16 – 00:22:06:02
Neil De Beer:
So there might be a variant, you might get more, but on average, that’s the loss. So if 18 million people go to the poll, the ANC needs 9,100,000, without a doubt, to become government again. I think it’s about 3 million more required this time than the last round that they had to have. So very interesting. The ANC knows what they need by hook or by crook.
00:22:06:04 – 00:22:14:12
Neil De Beer:
They know they are under no illusion. This is their last throw of the dice.
00:22:14:14 – 00:22:39:17
Chris Steyn:
Neil, I have a question from a viewer, and hopefully, you can answer it. If anarchy breaks out after the elections or during the elections, and the ANC does not get to the majority it needs, could it not declare a state of emergency to stall the transfer of power or to stall the formation of a new government or a coalition government?
00:22:39:19 – 00:22:42:07
Chris Steyn:
What could that scenario, how could that scenario play out?
00:22:42:13 – 00:23:17:03
Neil De Beer:
Well, Zanu PF all over. I mean, we have a huge appetite on this continent to remain in power and to remain in power no matter what. I think South Africa is in a different position. I always tell people that when I was in the services of state security and understanding security and understanding one other thing people must never forget is when they say we will turn into a Zimbabwe well, what we have, we have.
00:23:17:05 – 00:23:48:00
Neil De Beer:
We just have one thing, though, Chris, and I want to make that statement today. The reason why I am not always so fearful that we will turn into uncontrollable anarchy is you’ve got to remember that we are not the DRC and that we are not Zimbabwe because of only one reason. And that is our strategic point and our harbours that are based in the most southern tip of Africa.
00:23:48:02 – 00:24:30:13
Neil De Beer:
People don’t know that. So the most strategic defense weapon of the Republic of South Africa is its actual position geographically. So no one knows it, I know it, I had to know it. So if this country has to go into a civil war, if this country has to go into a state of emergency, where the will of the people is not followed and every remedy has been done through the court process, we will go to the ICJ, and this time not for a reason that they went.
00:24:30:15 – 00:25:28:03
Neil De Beer:
We will go to the ICJ to defend the Constitution, the freedom, and the liberty of this country. The UIM, if necessary, will take that lead. But here it is because the world cannot afford this country to go into instability due to the fact that the crisis in the Middle East is of such a nature between Iran and Israel and all the other parties that are taking sides, that the only route should the Suez Canal, shut and should their total logistical transport nightmare of the globe close the only route from one side to another is South Africa, and therefore the world will and will have to defend, like it or not, those countries.
00:25:28:03 – 00:25:53:13
Neil De Beer:
Freedom and liberty and stability. Breaking news first time ever. So? So I’m not fearful that we will run amok. I’m fearful that this democracy. Now! I’ve said it again and again. I said the question I always ask is not who’s going to win? It’s not is the ANC going to get 50 plus one? No, that’s not been my question lately.
00:25:53:15 – 00:26:03:13
Neil De Beer:
The question I’m asking lately is what if the ANC loses the election and they don’t want to give over power.
00:26:03:15 – 00:26:16:03
Chris Steyn:
Neil just in case you and I don’t speak again before the election, what are your final thoughts as we are hurtling towards a historic call by the people of South Africa?
00:26:16:06 – 00:26:38:22
Neil De Beer:
Yeah, Chris, I’ve got gray. I think I was a little bit younger when I entered politics. I’m a little bit more gray, and I don’t brush the hair anymore. I just buff my head. I’m also a grandfather. So a new title. And I want to start. My grandson, Aiden, is now the fundamental reason that I am giving it all.
00:26:39:00 – 00:27:08:07
Neil De Beer:
That I will continue this battle until the end, and until I understand that this country is free. I want to end off by saying three things, Chris: we have an absolutely exceptional, beautiful country. We just have bad management. Number two, the real asset on a business point of view is not the calculus of our assets of uranium, gold, diamonds.
00:27:08:09 – 00:28:06:22
Neil De Beer:
The real asset of this country is its people. And lastly, politicians are not going to ever be the solution to the problem of this country. The people are. If this country, its people, no matter the brilliant intelligentsia, the unbelievable leadership and the promises and discussion, the politicians are not the hope of this country. The people are, and the people must wake up to the fact that if they unite once again, if they get up and follow the principles of the Springbok rugby team, who united this country without the politicians, that the hope of that rainbow nation, the hope of the most mighty country on this continent and yes, in the world will come through. But it is up to us. We must get up now. Put everything aside. Race, religion, bigotry, and everything else that divides us and bloody unite this most stunning, gracious country of South Africa. And that’s my prayer, and I’m willing to fight for it every second of my life. Amen.
00:28:06:22 – 00:28:35:11
Neil De Beer:
Thank you. That was Neil De Beer, the president of the United Independent Movement, speaking to BizNews. I am Chris Steyn. Thank you, Neil.
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