Iowa got an arguably lucky call at the end of their Final Four matchup with UConn, as the Huskies were called for a moving screen down one point on their final offensive possession in an eventual two-point loss.
The Hawkeyes didn’t play all that well, digging themselves out of an early double-digit deficit to win by two as 3.5-point favorites.
Superstar guard Caitlin Clark finished with just 21 points on 7-for-18 (39 percent) shooting, while the team shot 7-for-25 (28 percent) from deep.
Meanwhile, the Gamecocks throttled N.C. State in their Final Four matchup, winning by 19 to move to 36-0.
As a result, South Carolina is a 6.5-point favorite in the title game.
This is a matchup of strength against strength. Iowa’s nation-best offense will face South Carolina’s nation-leading defense.
However, I think the Gamecocks match up well here.
The Hawkeyes push the pace in transition and use secondary actions in the half-court to get Clark in isolation.
Unfortunately for them, the Gamecocks rank among the top 15 teams nationally in transition points per possession allowed, off-ball screen PPP allowed and isolation PPP allowed. South Carolina can cover every set, especially the ones Iowa wants to run.
Meanwhile, Iowa’s defense is subpar at best.
The Hawkeyes win by out-scoring their opponents, not stopping them. As a result, Iowa ranks below the national average in defensive rating (94.4) and PPP allowed (30th percentile).
It’s not all bad, but I don’t feel good about Iowa’s chances of hanging with South Carolina on that end.
The Gamecocks are a rim-based offense, scoring via post-up or cutting sets while relentlessly crashing the offensive boards.
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Look out for Kamilla Cardoso on that end, as she scores over 11 paint points per game and four second-chance points per game while generating 1.08 post-up PPP (91st percentile).
The Hawkeyes are particularly vulnerable against post-up sets, allowing the 19th-most post-up points per game nationally.
And the Hawkeyes aren’t a great defensive rebounding squad, allowing more than nine second-chance points per game (61st percentile) at 0.99 PPP (43rd percentile).
In other words, the Gamecocks rank in the top five nationally in paint points per game (41), while the Hawkeyes rank in the 38th percentile in paint points per game allowed (30).
If Iowa wants to win the championship, it’ll have to shoot over the top of South Carolina. The Gamecocks allow around 21 3-point attempts per game, more than the national average, so the Hawkeyes could trade 2s for 3s.
And for what it’s worth, Iowa is due for some positive shooting regression after missing everything against UConn.
But that means Iowa is much more vulnerable to shooting variance, and any cold stretch could kill the Hawkeyes.
Meanwhile, South Carolina should be able to produce consistent interior offense via low-block buckets and second-chance points. The Gamecocks should generate consistent paint opportunities and make them at a consistent 60 percent clip.
If the Hawkeyes shoot 45 percent from 3 on 25 attempts, I’ll have to tip my cap and move on. But I’m willing to bet against that and ride with the squad that’s dominated the paint on both ends in all 36 wins this year.
This should also be an up-tempo, higher-scoring affair. Extra possessions always help the favorite.
Take South Carolina and give the points.
