LUTON, ENGLAND – MARCH 16: Teden Mengi of Luton Town wins a header in the box during the Premier … [+] League match between Luton Town and Nottingham Forest at Kenilworth Road on March 16, 2024 in Luton, England.(Photo by Charlotte Wilson/Offside/Offside via Getty Images)
Offside via Getty Images
At the very last Nottingham Forest was made to pay for its profligacy in front of goal.
Leading 1-0 for the majority of the game against Luton Town there were three occasions when the lead looked certain to double.
Divok Origi twice had the ball heading goalwards only for a Hatters defender to hack it clear, with his teammate Anthony Elanga also seeing a shot cleared off the line.
Passing up that number of chances is always likely to result in punishment in the Premier League so when Luke Berry popped up with one minute of normal time remaining to hammer home an equalizer the East Midlanders could have few complaints.
“We did enough in the game to win it with the chances that we had and the way we played. We should have taken three points,” manager Nuno Espirito Santo told the BBC ruefully.
“The only thing that we could have done better is be clinical with the final touch, the finishing because we had clear chances to kill the game and the result would be different.”
Dropping those two precious points leaves Nottingham Forest just three clear of the relegation places.
The club faces the very real prospect of being plunged into the drop zone should charges relating to Profit and Sustainability Rule breaches result in a points deduction.
That would represent a repeat of what happened earlier in the season with Everton. The Toffees found itself suddenly near the foot of the table when the Premier League decided a 10-point penalty was warranted for an alleged PSR rule break.
That punishment was reduced to 6 points on appeal which improved the situation marginally but still left the Toffees in the mix for demotion.
BRIGHTON, ENGLAND – MARCH 10: Nottingham Forest manager Nuno Espirito Santo during the Premier … [+] League match between Brighton & Hove Albion and Nottingham Forest at American Express Community Stadium on March 10, 2024 in Brighton, England.(Photo by David Horton – CameraSport via Getty Images)
CameraSport via Getty Images
Nuno is understandably keen for a swift resolution to Forest’s charges, which are anticipated to be ruled on this week.
“We’re waiting and let’s wait and see,” the manager said ahead of the game versus Luton Town.
“We don’t know when it could happen, but the club will take care of that. Football-wise, we just focus on the pitch. We don’t know when it’s going to come. I prefer the sooner the better.”
Hazarding a guess for what the outcome of these deliberations is a difficult task, but, speaking to the i newspaper, sports finance expert Dr Rob Wilson said he believed the penalty would be far less than the Merseyside club was hit with.
“I don’t think it will be bigger than what Everton’s was, I think it’ll be more like half. I reckon they’ll get three or four points,” he said.
Part of Dr. Wilsons’s reasoning for the lesser punishment was the fact Forest can point to the sale of star striker Brennan Johnson to Tottenham Hotspur for over $50 million as evidence it was balancing the books.
“The mitigation will be the Brennan Johnson case, just as Everton were able to prove they’ve had a low net spend over the past few years because of the big net spend they’d had previously,” he continued.
“Forest will point to the fact they did sell Johnson and that sale has brought them back into compliance – assuming it has done. That will help them ultimately. You’ve removed that sporting advantage through that particular player.”
Rarely are these cases clear cut and, as Dr Wilson pointed out, there will still be arguments over the effectiveness of the punishment.
“The critics will point to the fact they stayed up last season because they breached PSR,” he added.
“The same could be said of Everton, which is why I think they will get a points penalty, but mitigation will land in their favor, particularly now we have the six-point benchmark with Everton.”
But there is a far bigger factor indicating Nottingham Forest will be able to survive even with a points deduction.
This season the Premier League has three of the weakest teams ever to compete in the division and as a result one of the least competitive relegation battles.
The three promoted teams Burnley, Sheffield United and Luton Town have struggled to win points from the start of the year and with less than ten games remaining little has changed.
Currently, only Luton Town has more than 20 points and at the current rate the lowest points may tally a team has survived with (34) could be broken.
A point per game from Forest’s remaining fixtures would likely be enough to survive without factoring in a PSR penalty, either way, it is unlikely to require a large total to stay in the division.
In addition to the low level of competition, the Reds faithful can take heart from the fact the team’s performances haven’t always been matched by the results they deserved.
Narrow defeats to both Liverpool and Brighton and Hove Albion were marked by controversial decisions which Nottingham Forest felt swayed the result disproportionately.
If a few of those calls start going in the East Midlander’s favor you would expect the side to easily accrue enough points to pull clear of the far weaker opponents at the foot of the table.
