Saturday, April 20, 2024

How Much Tesla FSD Sales Are Needed to Increase Margins by 1%

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Tesla had 17.6% gross profit margins in Q4 2024 which was about $252 million per percent of gross margin.

Tesla has released FSD 12.3.3 Supervised to all North American Tesla owners. If they were buy or subscribe to Tesla FSD and we converted monthly subscriptions were equalized to a purchase (starting an average 5 year subscription) then 21,000 new FSD buys would be equal to 1% more margin. 21,000 would be 1.23% of the people trying the free trial.

If Tesla Q1 2024 had the same financial performance as Q4 2023, then 50,400 more FSD signups would get Tesla over 20% profit margin. If most of the new FSD signups were monthly subscriptions then the financial benefit would be spread out. It would take a full year of subscriptions to actually see 20% of the financial benefit in the accounting. Tesla would have to reveal the monthly subscriptions for stock analysts to understand the financials.

There are almost no Tesla owners in China that have bought FSD. There were lack of regulatory approvals and issues adapting the software for China. The all neural net version 12.X should be able to adapt quickly in China. Tesla has a fleet of about 1.5 million cars in China and there will be 2 million by the end of 2024. If Tesla could rapidly achieve 5% adoption in China this would be 75000-100000 sales.

Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.

Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.

A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts.  He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.

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